Madison Keys vs Jessica Pegula Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

Wojtek Kolan

Our Predictions

H2H Records Career Stats

HEAD TO HEAD
M. Keys vs J. Pegula

Madison Keys

USA

2

Win

Played

1

Win

Age

1.78m

Height

1.70m

C. Rank

Best Rank

Total Titles

YTD Titles

$20.8M

Career Money

$15.1M

Right-handed (two-handed backhand)

Plays

Right-handed (two-handed backhand)

Jessica Pegula

USA

2

Win

Played

1

Win

Age

1.78m

Height

1.70m

C. Rank

Best Rank

Total Titles

YTD Titles

$20.8M

Career Money

$15.1M

Right-handed (two-handed backhand)

Plays

Right-handed (two-handed backhand)

Head-to-head: Keys 2 - 1 Pegula

They have played 7 sets in total, with Madison Keys winning 4 and Jessica Pegula winning 3. The last match between Madison Keys and Jessica Pegula was at the Adelaide International - Adelaide, 11-01-2025, Round: F, Surface: Hard, with Madison Keys getting the victory 6-3 4-6 6-1.

Players	Head To Head Match Wins
Keys	2
Pegula	1

Last 3 H2H Matches:

(F) Adelaide International - Adelaide(01-11-25)

Stats

Madison Keys

Jessica Pegula

(R4) U.S. Open - New York(09-04-23)

Stats

Madison Keys

Jessica Pegula

(QF) San Diego Open - San Diego(10-14-22)

Stats

Jessica Pegula

Madison Keys

M. Keys vs J. Pegula H2H Profile

M. Keys	Stats	J. Pegula
$20,819,148	Career Prize Money	$15,131,082
64.27% (421-234)	Career Total W/L	64.46% (486-268)
2	Hard	1
14	Titles	10
2	Total H2H Matches	1
71.15% (37-15)	YTD Win/Loss	69.74% (53-23)
2	YTD Titles	3

M. Keys vs J. Pegula Match Preview:

Second serve performance recent form: In recent form (last 6 months), Madison Keys has won 40.91% of points on their second serve, while Jessica Pegula has won 43.04%. There is a high correlation between this stat and match prediction accuracy.
Return game stats recent form: Return stats show Madison Keys, in recent form, has won 49.23% of their opponent's second serve points, while Jessica Pegula has won 51.74%. The same stats for first serve returns are 28.81% and 29.52% respectively and this has a high correlation to pick who is favored in this H2H matchup.
Under pressure analysis: Madison Keys has saved 55.90% of breakpoints in recent form, whereas Jessica Pegula has saved 53.56% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
Performance overview: Over the last year Madison Keys has won 71.15% of matches played (W/L 37/15), with Jessica Pegula winning 69.74% (W/L 53/23) that gives us an overall head-to head prediction overview.
Best surface: Madison Keys has their best career surface win % on Grass, winning 71% (W/L 54/22), and worse career win % on I.hard, winning 50% (W/L 17/17). Jessica Pegula has their best career surface win % on Hard, winning 71% (W/L 286/137), and worse career win % on I.hard, winning 56% (W/L 34/27).
Player level: In the last year, Madison Keys has played most of their matches on the Masters series, winning 63.64% of matches (W/L 14/8), where as Jessica Pegula has played most of their matches on the Masters series, winning 66.67% of matches (W/L 24/12). When comparing stats between players to predict the favorite, it is of course all relative to the event level they have been playing at.
Direct H2H matches: They have played 3 times before with Madison Keys winning 2 times and Jessica Pegula being victorious 1 times. They have played 7 sets in total, with Madison Keys winning 4 and Jessica Pegula winning 3.
The last match between Madison Keys and Jessica Pegula was at the Adelaide International - Adelaide, 11-01-2025, Round: F, Surface: Hard, with Madison Keys getting the victory 6-3 4-6 6-1.
Head to head match duration: In past head to head matches, the average match time between these players has been 1:25:42.
Opponent quality stats: Over the last 12 months, Madison Keys has played against opponents with an average rank of 48.08 while Jessica Pegula has played against players with an average rank of 47.82.
Deciding set performance vs all players: If you are interested in live predictions and betting, if this match goes into a deciding set, Madison Keys has won 71% of deciding sets over the last 12 months, while Jessica Pegula has won 58% in all matches played on tour.
Break point conversion: In recent form, Madison Keys has converted 38.35% of breakpoint opportunities, and Jessica Pegula has converted 39.29% of their chances to break their opponents serve. A telling stat for in-game live betting tips when either player has a breakpoint opportunity.
Matchstat.com indicated that Madison Keys has 32.92 % Probability of win, Jessica Pegula 67.08 %.

Madison Keys vs Jessica Pegula Editorial Preview By TennisTipster88.

M. Keys vs J. Pegula H2H Stats Used In Our Predictions

M. Keys	Stats	J. Pegula
2	H2H Matches Won	1
4	Sets Won	3
37	Games Won	27
15	Aces (Total)	5
4	Total Double Faults	10
1:25:42	Average Match Time	1:25:42
68% (129/190)	1st Serve %	61% (138/226)
71% (92/129)	1st Serve Win %	65% (90/138)
52% (32/61)	2nd Serve Win %	40% (35/88)
44% (12/27)	Break Pts Won %	44% (7/16)
45% (101/226)	Return Points Win %	35% (66/190)
67% (2/3)	Best‑of‑3 Win %	33% (1/3)
100% (1/1)	Deciding Set Win %	0% (0/1)
100% (2/2)	1st Set Won, Won Match	100% (1/1)
0% (0/2)	1st Set Won, Lost Match	0% (0/1)
0% (0/1)	1st Set Lost, Won Match	0% (0/2)

Recent Performance Stats

M. Keys Recent Matches Played

OPPONENT	RESULT	SCORE	H2H
WTA Finals - Riyadh - 03-11-2025
Robin Amanda AnisimovaA. Anisimova	L	4-6 6-3 6-2	Stats
Robin Iga SwiatekI. Swiatek	L	6-1 6-2	Stats
U.S. Open - New York - 25-08-2025
R1 Renata ZarazuaR. Zarazua	L	6-7(10) 7-6(3) 7-5	Stats
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati - 04-08-2025
R4 Elena RybakinaE. Rybakina	L	6-7(3) 6-4 6-2	Stats
R3 Aoi ItoA. Ito	W	6-4 6-0	Stats

View All

J. Pegula Recent Matches Played

OPPONENT	RESULT	SCORE	H2H
WTA Finals - Riyadh - 03-11-2025
SF Elena RybakinaE. Rybakina	L	4-6 6-4 6-3	Stats
Robin Jasmine PaoliniJ. Paolini	W	6-2 6-3	Stats
Robin Aryna SabalenkaA. Sabalenka	L	6-4 2-6 6-3	Stats
Robin Cori GauffC. Gauff	W	6-3 6-7(4) 6-2	Stats
Wuhan Open - Wuhan - 06-10-2025
F Cori GauffC. Gauff	L	6-4 7-5	Stats

View All

M. Keys vs J. Pegula Stats Breakdown Vs All H2H Opponents

M. Keys	Stats	J. Pegula
64.27% (421/234)	YTD Win/Loss	64.46% (486/268)
62.25% (935/567)	Sets Win/Loss	61.63% (1073/668)
54.63% (7694/6389)	Games Win/Loss	54.57% (8807/7333)
64.12% (252/141)	Hard Win/Loss	67.61% (286/137)
64.47% (98/54)	Clay Win/Loss	61.84% (128/79)
50.00% (17/17)	Indoor Hard W/L	57.35% (39/29)
71.05% (54/22)	Grass Win/Loss	58.93% (33/23)
0.42	Aces Per Game	0.18
2893	Aces Total	1439
0.21	Double Faults Per Game	0.2
1416	Total Double Faults	1590
1:19:25	Average Match Time	1:12:54
353.74	Average Opponent Rank	388.53
63% (25508/40424)	1st Serve %	59% (24594/41545)
69% (17495/25508)	1st Serve Win %	65% (15982/24594)
48% (7162/14899)	2nd Serve Win %	49% (8241/16950)
44% (2121/4838)	Break Points Won % (Total)	47% (2474/5263)
43% (18091/41631)	Return Points Win %	46% (18991/41520)
70.86% (124/51)	Slam W/L	65.49% (74/39)
55.77% (116/92)	Masters W/L	65.88% (112/58)
44.44% (4/5)	Cups W/L	66.67% (6/3)
66.32% (126/64)	Main Tour W/L	65.57% (120/63)
64.91% (37/20)	Challenger W/L	61.92% (161/99)
87.50% (14/2)	Futures W/L	68.42% (13/6)
65% (417/643)	Best of 3 Sets Win %	64% (478/745)
25% (1/4)	Best of 5 Sets Win %	100% (1/1)
58% (102/177)	Tiebreaks Win % (Total)	57% (105/183)
53% (104/197)	Deciding Set Win %	55% (132/241)
87% (426/369)	1st Set Won, Won Match	86% (481/416)
13% (426/56)	1st Set Won, Lost Match	14% (481/65)
22% (229/51)	1st Set Lost, Won Match	25% (272/69)